Could Driverless Cars Revive Suburban Sprawl?

When self-driving cars become common decades from now, city centers will likely turn much more pedestrian-focused—even as robotic cars extend the reach of suburban sprawl, says Bloomberg News.

Two reports offer up the seemingly contradictory scenarios. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Real Estate envisions city street parking giving way to larger sidewalks as parking decks, gas stations and auto dealerships are converted to housing.

Yet a separate report sponsored by Capital One Financial Corp. predicts that self-driving cars will spark a boom in sub-suburban sprawl because people won’t need to pilot their own vehicles as they commute.

Both scenarios point to the same driving force: a shift from personal car ownership to fleets of on-demand driverless pods that constantly whisk people to and fro.

The timing of such a future isn’t clear. Nor is it apparent how future government policy will influence the trends. Forecasts don’t agree on whether a shift to robotic cars will reduce road usage or produce even more congestion.

Analysts tell Bloomberg that the effect of self-driving cars on real estate values is equally murky. Robotic transportation could slow demand for homes by enabling Baby Boomers to age in place rather than move to assisted-living facilities, for example. Armadas of driverless vehicles could drive up urban property values—or depress them by fueling a boom in suburban housing.