BP: Self-Driving Cars will Cut Demand for Oil

Oil and gas giant BP plc says the growth in ride-sharing and electric autonomous vehicles worldwide will lead to a downturn in transport demand for oil by 2040.

BP’s annual Energy Outlook report notes growing competition among energy sources, including the emergence of “most diverse fuel mix we have ever seen.” The analysis says overall demand for petroleum will plateau in about 2030.

​​​​​​

The company says global demand for personal and freight transport services will more than double by 2040. But efficiency gains will reduce the impact on oil demand to 25% growth, down sharply from the 80% achieved during the previous 25 years.

Emerging economics will continue to account for more than 80% of growth in petroleum demand, according BP. It says global demand for oil by the transport sector will peak in 2030, plateau for the next few years and be in decline by 2040 (chart). Petroleum will still account for 85% of total transport fuel demand by then, compared with 94% today.

The company predicts the number of electric vehicles on the road will jump from about 190 million in 2035 to 320 million by 2040.

BP says the world’s passenger car fleet will nearly double to 2 billion cars by 2040. The number of electric vehicles on the road will jump from about 190 million in 2035 to 320 million by 2040.

The average gain in efficiency of passenger vehicles will accelerate to 2%-3% per year. The report predicts new cars sold in the European Union, for example, will be about 70% more efficient than those sold in 2000.

By 2040, the sharp drop in the cost of car travel gained through the widespread deployment of fully autonomous cars will spawn a sharp upswing in shared mobility and EVs, beginning in the 2030s.

Click HERE to view the 124-page analysis as a PDF file.​​​​​​