Lithium-Ion Battery Market May Top $9 Billion by 2015

Worldwide demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric cars and hybrids could surpass $9 billion in four years, consultants Roland Berger predict.

The firm's update of its February forecast warns of "massive" overcapacity and strong price pressure among producers. But it predicts that a surge in production in Asia of new hybrid models will more than offset recently reduced forecasts for existing vehicle programs.

Roland Berger expects that 70% the lithium-ion battery market in 2015 will be controlled by five companies: AESC (20%), LG Chem (15%), Panasonic/Sanyo (13%), A123 (11%) and SB LiMotive (9%). It also predicts that one or two new players will join them by 2017, giving the group control of as much as 90% of the market. The firm says Chinese battery makers will capture about 8% of the world battery market by 2015.

Roland Berger notes that lower-cost, lower-powered nickel-metal batteries will still account for most of the global market for vehicle propulsion batteries in 2015. But it foresees a continuing shift to lithium-ion chemistries, including their growing use in start-assist "micro-hybrid" systems.