Study Warns of Asian Air Pollution “Hot Spots”

Without stronger efforts to curb emissions, the average air quality worldwide in 2050 will be no better than that of eastern Asia in 2005, according to an analysis by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry.

The team assumes a "business-as-usual" scenario with no new emission control initiatives beyond those in place in 2005. If so, the analysis predicts, increased population and greater manufacturing activity by 2050 will lead to chronically high ozone levels in northern India and persistently high levels of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and particulates in east Asia.

The study predicts air quality in Europe and North America also will deteriorate over the same period. But it says conditions will be better than the global average because those regions began taking steps decades ago to curb harmful emissions.

The researchers say their analysis is the first to consider all five major air pollutants that threaten human health: carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide and particulates smaller than 2.5 microns.

The team reports its findings in the current issue of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, a journal of the European Geosciences Union. The group says it intends to expand its initial analysis to estimate the number of people likely to be affected by worsening air quality.