Report: Ride-Sharing Could Cut U.S. Car Sales 40%

Car sales in the U.S. could slump to 9.5 million by 2030 from 16.5 million in 2014 as personal vehicle ownership gives way to shared self-driving cars, predicts Barclays plc analyst Brian Johnson.

In 10 years most new vehicles will be able to drive themselves automatically under virtually all conditions, according to Johnson's Disruptive Mobility report. That, he says, will fundamentally change the nature of the auto industry.

As families acquire self-driving cars and begin to use them as shuttles, household vehicle ownership will drop 50%, the report says. That's because a fully autonomous car could deliver one family member to a destination, then pilot itself with no humans aboard to pick up and deliver another family member elsewhere.

Johnson figures similar car-sharing services among strangers could cut the number of traditional personal cars in the U.S. fleet ninefold. When most cars on the road are autonomous, he estimates, the total number of vehicles on American roads could plunge 60% to fewer than 100 million units.

Shared vehicles also would sharply reduce the cost of personal transportation, according to Johnson's analysis. It estimates the average cost for a private ride in a self-driving sedan would be 44 cents per mile compared with at least $3 for a conventional taxi or UberX hailed-ride car. Johnson says sharing a driverless ride with another person would cut the cost to 8 cents per mile.