Study: Driverless Cars Will Capture 15% of Global Market by 2030

Fully autonomous vehicles will account for 15% of world passenger vehicle sales by 2030, McKinsey & Co. predicts.

About 10% of vehicles sold by then will be summoned on demand and shared rather than be privately owned, according to Automotive Revolution—Perspective Towards 2030. The study projects the proportion of shared vehicles will grow to 33% of new-car sales by 2050.

McKinsey notes that traditional carmakers have little choice but to embrace the mushrooming importance of software in their industry’s future. Doing so will mean dramatic changes in the glacial pace of traditional carmaking.

The study also anticipates continued growth in sales of electric vehicles, driven primarily by emission and fuel economy standards that will force carmakers to promote them. But the firm’s crystal ball for EVs is cloudy. Such vehicles could claim anywhere from 10% to 50% of new-car sales by 2030, according to the study. Much will depend upon improving range, lowering vehicle cost and building a charging station infrastructure.

Unlike other forecasts, McKinsey expects worldwide demand for new cars will continue to expand until at least 2030. But the firm expects growth between now and then will average only 2% per year—roughly half the current average pace.