Report: 25% of U.S. Travel Could be in Driverless EVs by 2030

Shared electric cars that drive themselves are likely to handle at least 25% of all passenger vehicle travel in the U.S.—about 900 billion miles per year—by 2030, predicts the Boston Consulting Group.

BCG says the shift will be driven by an estimated 60% drop in the cost of personal travel that results from the combined effect of electrified vehicles, ride sharing services and autonomous driving technologies. In Chicago, per-mile vehicle travel costs would be cut to 50 cents from $1.20 for an average annual saving of $7,000, the firm estimates.

The transition would replace the annual retail sale of 5.1 million conventional cars with a mix of 4.7 million partly autonomous vehicles for personal use and fully automated EVs employed as driverless shuttles in urban areas, according to BCG.

The firm, which plans to publish a report about its analysis later this spring, expects the transition to electric self-driving cars will likely begin in about five years.

It says cities with populations of at least 1 million people are the most likely pioneers because their population is large enough to support automated shuttle services, and they create enough congestion and inconvenience for private vehicle owners to make such options attractive. Conversely, the firm opines that automated EVs aren’t like to make economic sense in small towns or rural areas.

The consulting company notes that a sizeable shift in the way people use vehicles will have a profound impact on carmakers, vehicle equipment suppliers and cities. Its advice to affected companies: “deconstruct and rebuild” your business models, develop new capabilities and rearrange assets and talent to avoid becoming irrelevant.