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North American Tooling Industry Faces Sharp Decline
North America’s tool-and-die industry faces a sharp drop in business at the end of the decade that is likely to force many companies out of business, says manufacturing expert Laurie Harbour, CEO of Southfield, Mich.-based Harbour Results Inc.
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North America’s tool-and-die industry faces a sharp drop in business at the end of the decade that is likely to force many companies out of business, says manufacturing expert Laurie Harbour, CEO of Southfield, Mich.-based Harbour Results Inc.
After 2020, she says, “the tooling business is going to fall through the floor,” she tells Automotive News.
Harbour forecasts a 50% drop in orders for new North American vehicle programs 18-24 months from now as carmakers wind down a wave of redesigns for next-generation models designed to meet anticipated 2025 fuel economy standards.
When that happens, new-tooling orders will plunge—much as they did during the economic crisis in 2008-2009, Harbour warns. She forecasts that annual spending on new tooling will plummet from about $13.5 billion in recent years to less than $7 billion in 2020-2021.
Most tool-and-die shops in North America are small, privately owned businesses. Harbour says the average owner is more than 60 years old and unlikely to want to go through another wrenching business contraction. Many, she says, will opt to shut down or sell out.
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