Hydrogen Outlook: It’s All About Cost, Infrastructure

The percentage of new U.S. vehicles powered by hydrogen in 2050 could range anywhere from zero to 70%, according to researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee.

The group, led by David Greene, predicts hydrogen cars will capture about 30% of the American market by 2050 at the current rate of development but nothing at all if development stalls. The team presented its initial findings earlier this week at a fuel cell conference in Washington, D.C.

The researchers, whose project is half completed, are looking at 40 powertrain systems and nearly 1,500 consumer-related variables. They have calculated 30 scenarios that chart hydrogen vehicle market penetration according to such factors as infrastructure deployment and battery, fuel cell and fuel storage costs.

The analyses assume baseline fuel-cell costs of $60 per kilowatt for fuel cells and $10/kWh for on-board hydrogen storage.

Results to date show that lower-cost batteries will help the viability of all "green" options. Researchers say the vehicle market is large enough to support both battery- and fuel cell-based propulsion options.

The key to market growth for hydrogen vehicles is reducing fuel cell costs, according to the group. If that happens, it says, hydrogen vehicles would be competitive at fuel prices ranging from a gasoline equivalent of $2-$4 per gallon.

Greene told conference attendees that lower battery costs would expand markets for hybrids, electrics and hydrogen vehicles alike. The analysis to date suggests that the most popular powertrain configuration by 2050 would be a fuel cell plug-in hybrid.