TRW Predicts Semi-Autonomous Cars by 2016

TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. says the cost of vision-based control systems is dropping so quickly that significant numbers of vehicles with some ability to drive themselves will hit the market in three years.

Vision technology is already being used to support lane-departure warning systems, recognize traffic signs, adjust cruise control speed and provide emergency braking.

TRW predicts that vision systems, enhanced by radar, will eventually become the primary sensor for self-driving vehicles. The company notes that the size and weight of vision systems continues to shrink, and their cost has plunged by a factor of eight in the past 10 years.

TRW's own Mobileye vision system is nearing its fourth generation. The technology debuted in 1999 with an ability to recognize traffic signs and support such features as lane-departure warnings and adaptive high-beam headlamps. Subsequent iterations have added capabilities to recognize pedestrians and animals and measure distance to the vehicle ahead for adaptive cruise control systems.

The next version of Mobileye will be able to monitor irregularities in the road surface and analyze the vehicle's surroundings to detect construction zones and no-entry signs.

TRW is developing semi-autonomous driving systems that integrate Mobileye with the company's electric steering and brake controls. The objective is provide short periods of autonomous driving. Even that level of automatic control will require multiple cameras with a full surround view of the vehicle, the company notes.

TRW opines that fully autonomous systems are not likely in the short term because they would require an ability to react to such unexpected events as another car running a red light. That capability is beyond the scope of today's sensors to detect or predict, according to the company.