Report: Alternatives to Car Ownership Could Cut Sales 29%

Retail demand for new cars in the U.S. could plummet 29% if alternatives such as car- and ride-sharing options become more accessible and affordable, according to Cox Automotive Inc.

The latest Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study finds that nearly 50% of those surveyed believe car ownership is too expensive. More than one-third of respondent say they are interested in reducing the number of vehicles they own over the next five years.

Currently, U.S. consumers use such alternatives as ride-hailing or car-sharing services for only 3% of the miles they travel. But one-third of those surveyed by Cox say they are receptive to alternatives. Consumers currently under the age of 40 are most likely to opt for alternatives to traditional vehicle ownership, according to the study.

Cox figure the current cost of vehicle ownership is 50 cents per mile. The study says alternatives that cost 60 cents per mile would result in a 29% drop in retail car sales that would be offset by a surge in fleet sales to on-demand services.

If alternative transportation costs fell to 35 cents per mile—likely only with the spread of fully autonomous vehicles—the ratio of miles traveled in personally owned vehicle and alternate modes would reach 50:50, according to the report.