CAR: Fully Autonomous Cars Won’t Reach Market Until 2030

Vehicles capable of driving themselves under all circumstance won’t become commercially available until 2030, according to the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich.

CAR President and CEO Carla Bailo says vehicles with so-called Level 5 autonomy eventually will transform the auto industry and the movement of people and goods. But she cautions that the shift will come gradually.

Bailo unveiled CAR’s 38-page assessment, The Great Divide, at an Automotive Press Assn. luncheon in Detroit earlier today. A PDF version of the report is available HERE.

Bailo cites IHS Markit estimates that fully automated vehicles will account for less than 4% of total vehicle sales in 2030 but are likely to control 55% of the market by 2040.

She says the precursor to autonomous vehicles, advanced driver assist systems (such as automatic lane keeping and emergency), will be fully deployed by the end of the next decade.

But attempting to mix self-driving cars with vehicles driven by humans presents many challenges. Bailo predicts that geo-fencing—limiting automated vehicles to their own lanes or roadways—will appear by 2020. She says segregating the two types of vehicles would avoid a “battle between human brains and computer brains” during a transition period from self-driven to automated vehicles that could stretch 30 years.

Bailo notes that the emergence of mobility services such as automated shuttles and ride-sharing will catch on only if they are cost-effective and can match the convenience of conventional options. She also says:

• Automated cars make the most sense in densely populated areas, where trip distances are relatively short and speeds are low—ideal operating conditions for electric vehicles.
• Vehicle-to-vehicle connectivity can reduce crashes, but carmakers are mulling whether to skip that step and move directly to even more effective self-driving technology.
• Mobility services are more likely to make cities denser than to encourage urban sprawl. The reason: Research shows that most people prefer not to spend more than an hour per day commuting, even in a self-driving vehicle.
• Early adopters of autonomous vehicles will be Millennials, Baby Boomers and affluent and well-educated urban dwellers.
• The impact of autonomous vehicles on vehicle production and sales will be “revolutionary and a little bit scary.”​