Autonomous Vehicle Sales Forecasted to Top 21 Million Units by 2035

Global sales of vehicles equipped with semi- and fully autonomous driving capabilities will approach 600,000 by 2025 and grow at a compounded annual rate of 43% to top 21 million units by 2035, according to a new report by IHS Automotive.

The new forecast nearly doubles that of a 2014 IHS report that predicted there would be 11.8 million such vehicles by 2035. The rapid increase reflects a wave of new announcements, investments and partnerships by carmakers and tech companies related to self-driving cars, the consulting firm notes.    

IHS expects the U.S. to be an early leader in the trend with several thousand vehicles with some sort of automation on the road in 2020. Cumulative sales in the region are expected to reach about 4.5 million by 2035.

Japan will kick off its rollout of such vehicles at the same time, IHS says, in conjunction with the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo. Combined cumulative volumes in Japan and South Korea are forecasted to total nearly 1.2 million vehicles with some level of autonomy by 2035.

After a slower start, China likely will become the global leader in sales of autonomous vehicles with sales topping 5.7 million units during the forecast period, IHS estimates. The growth will be driven by China’s expanding vehicle market and consumer demand there for new technologies, according to the report.

Volumes in western and eastern Europe are predicted to reach 3 million and 1.2 million, respectively, by 2035. Sales in the Middle East/Africa region are projected to total 1 million vehicles.

The growth of autonomous vehicles will be linked to other emerging trends, IHS says, such as connected vehicle technology and car- and ride-sharing services. It also expects “entirely new” vehicle segments to be created.

Despite the aggressive growth forecasts, IHS points out there are several challenges to implementing automated vehicle technologies. It lists safety and legal regulations, consumer acceptance, software reliability and cybersecurity as chief obstacles.