Study: German Ban on Combustion Engines Could Jeopardize 600,000 Jobs

More than 600,000 jobs could be threatened in Germany if the country acts on a proposal to require zero-emission vehicles by 2030, the Munich-based Ifo Institute forecasts.

Ifo conducted its analysis on behalf of VDA, the German Assn. of the Automotive Industry as Stuttgart and other cities in the country move to ban older-model diesels.

The study is in response to a vote last October by the Bundesrat, Germany’s federal council signaling bipartisan support for a zero-emission mandate to take effect in 2030. Backers of the plan say Germany won’t be able to meet its Paris Agreement promise to cut greenhouse gas emissions by then without a ban on all new piston engines.

The Ifo study estimates that such a step could eliminate 426,000 direct vehicle manufacturing jobs and nearly 200,000 positions at suppliers and related industries.

But other analysts point out that new jobs in research, software, battery production and other areas related to zero-emission vehicles would partly offset the losses caused by cuts in piston production. Barbara Hendricks, Germany’s environment minister, tells Handelsblatt it will be up to the auto industry to avert an employment crisis.