Slow Ramp-Up Projected for Fuel Cell Vehicles

The number of fuel cell-powered models available to the public is expected to jump from three today—the Honda Clarity, Hyundai ix35/Tucson and Toyota Mirai—to at least 17 nameplates by 2027, predicts IHS Automotive.

But the combined global sales of these vehicles likely will only be about 70,000 units per year by that time, the market research company forecasts. At that level, fuel cell vehicles would account for less than 0.1% of the global new vehicle market.

A lack of public awareness about fuel cell vehicles and the dearth of hydrogen fuel stations are limiting the technology’s growth. IHS says there currently are about 100 publicly accessible hydrogen stations worldwide, with each new station costing as much as $3 million to build.

Another drawback: The cost of producing hydrogen from renewable resources, such as solar and wind power, is very expensive. As a result, IHS says, as much as 96% of hydrogen is derived from fossil fuels. Breakthroughs also are needed to reduce the amount of platinum needed for fuel cell catalysts.

Most fuel cell vehicles are expected to be produced in Japan and Korea through 2021, according to IHS. But the firm says Europe probably will take the lead by the end of next decade.

On the plus side, fuel cell vehicles have similar refueling times and driving ranges as conventional vehicles with piston engines. This could create a window of opportunity for fuel cells to make inroads against hybrids and pure electric vehicles until next-generation battery systems are developed for those vehicles, IHS says.