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IMF Cites Rising Threat of Eurozone Recession
The International Monetary Fund says the chances of the eurozone slipping back into economic recession within the next six months is 38%, roughly twice the likelihood it estimated in April.
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The International Monetary Fund says the chances of the eurozone slipping back into economic recession within the next six months is 38%, roughly twice the likelihood it estimated in April.
The IMF also has lowered its estimate of global economic growth 0.4 points to 3.3% this year and trimmed its 2015 forecast to 3.8% from 4%. It warns that increasing downside risks could lead to even slower growth.
The IMF reduced its growth forecasts for the eurozone's three largest economies. it now expects Germany to expand 1.4% this year and 1.5% in 2015 compared with its July estimates of 1.9% and 1.7%. It estimates France's expansion at 0.4% this year (from 0.8%) and 1.0% in 2015 (from 1.5%). Italy's economy will shrink 0.2% this year (from 0.3% growth) and expand 0.8% (from 1.1%) next year.
Elsewhere in the region, Russia's economy is likely to post full-year growth of only 0.2% this year and 0.5% in 2015, according to the IMF. The forecast for the U.K. is unchanged at 3.2% this year and 2.7% in 2015.
Bright spots for economic growth are the U.S. (+2.2% this year and 3.1% in 2015), other advanced economies (2.9% and 3.1%), China (7.4% and 7.1%) and India (+5.6% and 6.4%).
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