Global Sales of Fuel Cell Vehicles Could Reach 2 Million by 2030

Annual sales of fuel cell-powered cars, buses and scooters will reach only 1,000 units worldwide by 2015 but then surge to 2 million units by 2030, predicts Navigant Consulting Inc.

The Boulder, Colo.-based firm says demand will be sharply restricted until about 2020 by a limited hydrogen refueling network. Navigant's report says carmakers are rapidly cutting costs and boosting performance for fuel cell vehicles. But it warns that demand won't grow without government support through environmental regulation and funding for infrastructure.

Navigant says Hyundai Motor Co. has taken an early lead in light-duty passenger vehicles by putting its fuel cell-powered Tucson SUV into small-volume production earlier this year. Several other carmakers, including BMW, Honda, Mercedes-Benz and Toyota, plan to begin limited sales of fuel cell vehicles by 2020.

The report says western Europe has become a focal point for fuel cell development. It adds that the U.S. lost its leadership position when the Dept. of Energy shifting its funding focus from fuel cells to battery-powered vehicles.

The report cites Germany, the Nordic countries and the U.K. as nations that are pushing to deploy hydrogen fueling networks. It notes that several countries in Asia Pacific also plan to begin developing a hydrogen infrastructure in about two years.

Navigant estimates that fuel cell buses and scooters are roughly three years from moving into a commercial phase.