Diesels Could Double U.S. Market Share in 10 Years

Diesel-powered cars could capture nearly 18% of the U.S. auto market in the next decade, predicts a study by the newly formed Fuels Institute.

Diesel-powered vehicles will account for 4%-7% of light vehicles on the road in America by 2023 compared with 2% last year, according to the analysis. It also projects that diesels will capture 7%-18% of new-vehicle sales in 2023.

The Alexandria, Va.-based institute forecasts dramatic percentage growth in alternative fuel vehicles over the next 10 years but little impact on the fuels industry because of the small volumes involved:

• Flex fuel vehicle production will double to about 9%, but the proportion of such vehicles that actually use E85 instead of gasoline will remain low because of limited supply.
• Natural gas will power less than 0.5% of the light-duty fleet (a tenfold increase from today) and 4% of the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleet.
• Propane will double its market share to less than 0.1% of all light vehicles and 0.8% of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.
• Battery electric vehicles will surge at least 22-fold but account for only 0.7% of the light-vehicle market.
• Fuel cell electrics will jump from 500 last year to 70,000, representing an estimated 0.02% of the light-vehicle fleet.