Report: Carmakers on Track to Meet U.S. Fuel Economy Targets for 2025

Carmakers already have the technology to meet the their individual U.S. fuel economy targets for 2025. But surging demand for trucks is likely to lower the market’s overall average to about 50 mpg from the originally forecast 54.5 mpg, according to an analysis by regulators.

The Technical Assessment Report—released today by the Environmental Protection Agency, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and California Air Resources Board—is part of a midterm review of fuel economy targets that were set in 2014 for the 2022-2025 model years.

The analysis says carmakers have adopted fuel-saving technologies faster than regulators expected, and at costs at or below those originally forecast. It notes that manufacturers surpassed their year-by-year requirements in each of the first three years of the program.

The study predicts carmakers will be able to achieve their individual efficiency goals through 2025 with high-tech gasoline engines—and without the help of significant sales of hybrid and electric powertrains.

The 2025 standards set different targets for carmakers based upon each company’s sales mix. Thus producers that specialize in small cars must achieve a higher sales-weighted average than those that sell mostly trucks and SUVs.

Officials tell reporters they no longer expect the overall average for all carmakers will reach the 54.5 mpg estimate made when regulators set the standards four years ago. That forecast assumed two-thirds of new-vehicle sales in 2025 would be cars and one-third would be less fuel-efficient pickup trucks and SUV/crossovers.

But 40% lower fuel prices since 2012 are shrinking the proportion of cars sold. Cars accounted for 51% of passenger vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2012, notes Autodata Corp. That ratio slid to 44% last year and dropped to 42% through the first half of 2016.