Petroleum Use by Cars to Peak in 2025

Global consumption of petroleum-based fuels will plateau in seven years, even as car sales continue to grow, says the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

After 2025, petroleum demand by a growing number of vehicles sold will be countered by increased sales of electric cars, greater use of alternative fuels and efficiency gains for piston-powered vehicles, according to IEA’s latest assessment, which is being released today.

The agency says cars and trucks currently consume 21 million barrels of petroleum per day, or 21% of overall demand. Demand will rise to about 23 million bpd in the late 2020s. By 2040, consumption will fall back to today’s levels, even though the number of vehicle in use surges 80%, according to the assessment.

IEA predicts that the largest declines by 2040 will occur in developed markets such as the EU (a 45% drop) and North America (25% shrinkage).

IEA estimates that perhaps 300 million electric cars will be in use by 2040, lowering oil consumption by 3 million bpd. At the same time, increasingly stringent fuel economy standards for piston-powered vehicles will cut daily consumption by 9 million barrels.

The agency predicts that natural gas and biofuels such as ethanol will lower daily demand for petroleum-based fuels by 1.6 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively, by 2040.