OPEC Lowers Growth Outlook for Global Car Fleet

The number of cars on the road worldwide will exceed 2 billion by 2040, predicts the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. But that number is 137 million fewer than the cartel forecast two years ago.

OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook report also foresees slower growth for electric cars. The new report projects 235 million EVs will be in use worldwide in 2040, down 12% from the group’s prediction in 2013. The new number is less than half the fleet size forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

The cartel says growth in demand for oil will slow but still rise by 15.8 million barrels per days to 111.1 million bpd by 2040. That’s because an overall expansion of the global fleet will offset improved operating efficiencies and a rise in alternative-fuel vehicles.

The cartel doesn’t explain why it lowered its growth forecast for the global fleet. But Bloomberg News notes that the spread of self-driving vehicles—especially those that are shared for on-demand transportation—could shrink the number of cars on the road. On the other hand, such cars would pile up significantly more travel per year.

The impact on oil markets will depend on how autonomous vehicles are propelled, Bloomberg points out. If piston engines continue to do the work, the transportation sector’s demand for oil could remain relatively stable. But if vehicles are increasingly powered by electricity, as carmakers suggest will be the case, then growth in petroleum consumption is likely to slow.