Report Questions Industry’s Ability to Meet 2025 CAFE Goals

The U.S. corporate average fuel economy target of 54.5 mpg for cars by 2025 will be far tougher to meet than regulators thought when they set them five years ago, according to a report by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.

Light-Duty Vehicle CAFE and GHG Standards says carmakers have generally outpaced rising fuel economy goals over the past decade. But the 25-page report cautions that keeping pace over the next 10 years will be extremely difficult. One reason: a major disconnect between faster-rising efficiency targets and a consumer swing to less efficient trucks, SUVs and crossover vehicles.

The report points out that CAFE goals for cars will climb 25% in 2014-2021 but then nearly double over the next five years. AAM says the Environmental Protection Agency predicted in 2012 that meeting the 2025 target would require only a modest mix of hybrids and all-electric vehicles. But the alliance says boosting the efficiency of gasoline and diesel engines sufficiently to do so “goes beyond current technological realities.”

AAM asserts that none of today’s gasoline diesel or hybrid models meets the 2025 standard. It estimates that nearly half the U.S. new-car fleet in 2025 must become as efficient as today’s hybrids to achieve the 54.5-mpg goal. Reaching that level without a huge upswing in EVs and hybrids “is not realistic,” the report says.

The alliance urges regulators, who currently are conducting a midterm assessment of the 2025 goals, to base their projections on “holistic, real-world modeling” rather than historical data. Such a model should consider a strong economic impact analysis and assume a far higher level of electrified powertrains.