Mexico: NAFTA Deal Likely by Early May

Mexico’s economic minister says there’s a “very high probability” that Canada, Mexico and the U.S. will agree in principle by early May on a deal to update the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Ildefonso Guajardo estimates the chance of success at 80%. He made the forecast in an interview on Mexico’s Televisa network about the status of the 11-month-old talks.

Guajardo met in Washington last week with top trade envoys from Canada and the U.S. to find ways to achieve accord. Seven rounds of formal negotiations left negotiators mired over local content requirements, trade dispute resolution procedures and future pact reviews.

But the three countries have now agreed to a state of permanent talks rather than waiting for another formal round of discussions, according to media reports. All three countries are eager to achieve at least an agreement in principle ahead of elections that could otherwise force a reset for the negotiations.

The three countries originally hoped to reach accord last October. That deadline slipped to January and then to the end of last month. Most recently the U.S. reportedly hopes for an announcement during the Summit of the Americas conference in Lima, Peru, on April 13-14.