Global Energy Demand to Grow 35% by 2040

A 130% expansion of the global economy and 2 billion more people will push worldwide demand for energy up 35% from 2010 to 2040, predicts ExxonMobil's annual energy outlook.

The report says China and India, where one-third of all people on Earth will live by 2040, will account for half the world's growth in global energy demand over the period.

Global energy consumption will reach 710 quadrillion BTUs in 2040, ExxonMobil forecasts. But the company says demand would be 500 quadrillion BTUs higher if it wasn't for advances in energy efficiency expected by then.

Oil and natural gas will supply about 60% of total energy needs by 2040. The analysis estimates that energy used to generate electricity, the single largest category of consumption, will climb more than 50%.

Energy use by the transportation sector will rise from about 99 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2010 to 140 million equivalent bpd in 2040, the report says. More than half that increase will come from a 70% surge in demand by heavy-duty commercial trucks.

The world's passenger-vehicle fleet will double to about 1.7 million units over the same period. But the combined energy consumption by those cars and light trucks will plateau by 2020 and slowly decline during the following 20 years, thanks to fuel efficiency improvements.

The report expects hybrids to account for about 35% of the worldwide light-duty fleet in 2040 compared with less an 1% in 2010. It says electric and plug-in electric vehicles will capture less than 5% of the market by then.

Global use of natural gas, already the world's fastest-growing fuel source, will surge two-thirds to provide more than 25% of all global energy needs by 2040, ExxonMobil predicts. It forecasts that gas will overtake coal by then as the primary source of fuel to generate electricity.

The report estimates that two-thirds of the world's recoverable crude oil and condensate will remain untapped by 2040. It also figures that 45% of liquid fuels by 2040 will come from sources other than conventional crude and condensate production.