Europe May Need 50% Hybrid Mix to Hit 2025 CO2 Target

Europe's new-car fleet could emit only 70 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer 2025 if about half of new vehicles sold by then were hybrids, according to an analysis by Ricardo-AEA.

Reuters says the study, which has not yet been published, estimates the goal also could be achieved by then if electric cars contributed 7% of all sales and hybrids accounted for 22%.

The Washington, D.C.-based International Council on Clean Transport calculates that in 2010 hybrids and EVs made up 1% and 0.1% of the European fleet, respectively.

In 2011, Europe's new-car fleet averaged CO₂ emissions of about 136 g/km, according to the European Commission. The EC has set an interim target of 130 g/km by 2015. The European Parliament is debating the commission's proposal to require an average of 95 g/km CO₂ in 2020.

Environmentalists want the discussion to include the goal of setting an even lower standard for 2025.

The Ricardo-AEA analysis asserts that Europe's new-car fleet could achieve a CO₂ average of only 60 g/km by 2025 if electrics accounted for 24% of sales. The study, which was commissioned by environmental groups Greenpeace and the European Federation for Transport & Environment, concludes that the 60-gram goal is well within the range of "credible market projections and scenarios."

The EC has estimated that lowering CO₂ from 130 g/km to 95 g/km would cut fuel consumption 27% and save owners $3,900-$5,200 over the 13-year life of their vehicle.

The commission plans to publish a position paper later this year on CO₂ targets beyond 2020.