China’s SUV Craze Defies Government’s EV Push

China’s central planners hope to electrify 40% of passenger vehicles sold in the country by 2030. But by then piston-powered SUVs are likely to outsell EVs and hybrids by a factor of five, The Wall Street Journal says.

The newspaper cites an analysis by Bernstein Research predicting that by 2025 China will have 30 million EVs on the road—alongside 150 million SUVs. As in other markets, Chinese consumers like the comfort, tall seating position and sense of security they get with SUVs and crossovers.

Sedans have been the most popular body style in China for years. But Bernstein says SUV/crossovers will overtake them in 2018 in annual new-car sales. By 2023 there will be more SUVs than sedans on the road.

The trend means China’s gasoline consumption isn’t like to slow anytime soon. The Journal cites data from the Paris-based International Energy Agency that shows China’s demand for gasoline used in transportation zoomed from 1 million barrels per day in 2005 to 2 million bpd 2013 and is likely to reach 3 million bpd in 2018.

The forecast predicts consumption won’t level off—at about 3.6 million bpd—until 2024. By then, the Journal says, the price of operating an EV will become more economical than a piston-powered vehicle.