Analysis: Carmakers Likely to Meet Europe's CO2 Goal

European regulators should not ease carbon dioxide emission standards because the region's carmakers are on track to meet 2015 and 2020 targets, according to the Brussels-based European Federation for Transport and Environment.

The European Commission has set goals that would result in a regional new-car fleet average of 130 g/km by 2015 and 95 g/km by 2020. The latest annual analysis by the environmental advocacy group indicates the industry cut CO₂ emissions by 4 g/km to 136 g/km last year.

T&E says six of Europe's seven highest-volume carmakers lowered their CO₂ averages by at least 2% from 2010 to 2011.

The group notes that Fiat (119 g/km fleet average), Toyota (127 g/km) and PSA (127 g/km) have already achieved their 2015 emission targets. Each manufacturer has a different goal determined by the weight of the cars it produces in a given year.

By extrapolating performance since 2000, T&E concludes that it will be relatively easy for PSA, Toyota and Fiat to meet Europe's 95 g/km goal for 2020. It also praises Ford, General Motors, Suzuki and Volkswagen for accelerating their rates of improvement in recent years.

T&E estimates that a 1% drop in vehicle weight translates into 0.7% lower fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. But it complains that the EC's formula for setting targets discourages carmakers from reducing vehicle weight.

The analysis says the current formula tightens a manufacturer's CO₂ goal by nearly 5 g/km for every 100 kg reduction in average fleet weight. It estimates that the average vehicle weight for a new car in Europe climbed to an eight-year high of 1,389 kg (3,062 lbs) in 2011.

T&E urges the EC to recalculate CO₂ targets in terms of vehicle footprint defined by the area between its four wheels. The group says such a change would reward carmakers for reducing vehicle weight and cut the cost of compliance.