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GBI Machine Tool Forecast Shows Improvement for 2017
Since last quarter, the central forecast improved to -1.8 percent from -3.7 percent.
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At the end of the third quarter GBI refreshed its machine tool unit forecast. There was a noticeable improvement in the forecast. The central forecast for year end 2017 improved to -1.8 percent from year end 2016 compared with -3.7 percent when the model was run at the end of the second quarter. We ran 100,000 simulations of the model to find the 80 percent confidence interval for 2017. The low end of the confidence interval remained unchanged at -11.1 percent after the model fresh. However, the upper end of of the confidence interval increased to 8.1 percent from 7.4 percent. This is because the forecast for each month from October 2016 to December 2017 improved by more than 10 percent. However, this shows that even a significant increase in the forecast for individual months does not change the year-over-year increase all that much.
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