GM, Toyota Most Likely to Gain Market Share?

Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Co. will debut the most redesigned models over the next four years—85% and 84%, respectively—and thus are more likely than their rivals to earn more market share, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Car Wars 2018-2021 report.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research analyst John Murphy tells the Automotive Press Assn. in Detroit that Ford and Honda are likely to maintain their current shares between 2016 and 2020. But Hyundai, Kia, Nissan and European brands are likely to lose share over the same period.

Murphy isn’t certain whether sales this year will equal the record 17.5 million units sold in 2016. But he expects sales will reach 18 million units next year before declining to as few as 13 million units by about 2025.

He says the decline could come sooner because of a record 5 million vehicles likely to come off lease by 2019. The resulting glut will depress used-car prices, thereby lowering demand for new cars.