LMC: Modest Global Growth Ahead for Car Sales

The global car maker will total about 95 million units in 2018, up only 1% from the previous year, when sales rose 3%, says LMC Automotive.

Volumes this year will be flat in North America and China, up 2% in Europe and down 7% in South America, Jeff Schuster, LMC’s president of global vehicle forecasting, tells attendees at LMC’s annual global outlook conference outside Detroit.

He says the seven-year outlook for light vehicle sales remains “favorable” in spite of such risks as trade and disruptions among emerging markets.

Schuster predicts a 2.4% compound annual growth rate in global car sales between 2018 and 2025. Annual production over that period will climb from 95.9 million vehicles this year to 102.6 million by 2021 and to 112.5 million by 2025.

Over that period, mature car markets will contribute a steady 42 million units per year, according to LMC. Schuster says virtually all growth will come from emerging markets, even though they represent high risk in the short term. He predicts sales volumes from those countries will rise from 52 million units this year to about 69 million by 2025.

Schuster notes that trade tariffs could knock out 200,000 units of global production this year and 1.8 million units in 2019. He says even the likelihood of resolution on trade would swing global production to a 1% gain from a 3% decrease through 2021.