IEA Says IC Efficiency Could Jump 50% by 2030

The fuel efficiency of piston-powered two- and four-wheeled vehicles could be improved 30%-50% from 2005 levels with existing and near-ready technologies, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

But the agency's Technology Roadmap: Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles says improvements in government standards, fuel economy test procedures, traffic flow and road surface conditions will be necessary to achieve that goal. Those policy steps are detailed in a companion report, Policy Pathway: Improving the Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles.

The global average fuel economy for passenger vehicles improved from 29 mpg (8 liters per 100 km) in 2005 to 31 mpg (7.6 l/100 km) in 2010, or 2.7% per year, the IEA says. If that pace continues, the worldwide average would reach 57 mpg (4.1 l/100 km) by 2030.

The report cites a 2009 analysis by the U.S. National Research Council that claims existing technology could boost conventional gasoline engine efficiency in North America 15% from 2006 to 2020. Over the same period, the U.S. study says, available technologies could improve the efficiency of diesel and hybrid systems 28% and 44%, respectively, and achieve almost 50% better fuel efficiency by 2030.

Elsewhere, the IEA acknowledges that incorporating all the necessary technology, design and powertrain improvements could cost about $8,100 per vehicle.

The IEA notes that only about 20% of the energy in fuel is currently used to propel the vehicle, suggesting a "huge potential" for improvement. Between 67% and 72% of fuel energy is lost through the engine, mostly in the form of wasted radiator and exhaust heat.