IC Engine Expected to Dominate Auto Market for Decades

A report by the petroleum industry opines that internal combustion engines will continue to propel most cars and trucks until at least 2050.

The analysis comes from the National Petroleum Council, a 66-year-old advisory group to the U.S. Dept. of Energy. The report, Advancing Technology for America's Transportation Future, notes that continuing improvements in the efficiency of IC engines will make it difficult for anything short of "disruptive innovations" to unseat the relatively inexpensive technology. It says examples of such "uncertain" breakthroughs are ultra-light materials and new fuels.

The study predicts that fuel economy for IC-powered light vehicles could be improved as much as 90% by 2050 compared to 2010, partly through the use of hybrid powertrains. It says the most likely alternative to gasoline-fueled IC engines would be IC engines powered by compressed natural gas.

Energy Secretary Steven Chu asked the group three years ago to assess the impact of alternate-fuel powertrains on carbon dioxide emissions and oil use. The study says the country won't meet Chu's goal of reducing the transportation sector's CO₂ emissions 50% by 2050 without unspecified "additional strategies" beyond technology and infrastructure.

The council suggests that U.S energy policy, which has championed several technologies over the past 10 years, adopt a neutral position so market forces can choose winners and losers.

Click HERE to download the 62-page report summary.