Global Transportation Energy Use to Climb 40% by 2040

Surging demand for commercial transport will drive a 40%-plus jump in worldwide transportation-related energy consumption by 2040, according to a new forecast from ExxonMobil.

Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 says global daily energy demand to power light-duty vehicles will plateau at the equivalent of roughly 22 million barrels of oil by 2020. Then it will slowly decline to about 21 million barrels in 2040. By then, Exxon estimates, the global fleet of cars and light trucks will average 47 mpg compared to about 27 mpg today.

Over the same period, energy use by heavy-duty vehicles will climb 65%, according to the analysis. Exxon figures fuel demand for trucks will equal that of light-duty vehicles by 2020. Consumption by big trucks will continue to grow to the equivalent of about 27 million barrels of oil per day in 2040, accounting for 40% of all transportation energy demand.

Commercial vehicles also will drive a shift from gasoline to diesel fuel. The analysis says diesel will account for 70% of worldwide growth in transportation energy use and become the dominant fuel before the end of this decade.

Exxon estimates that global daily demand for gasoline and diesel in 2040 will be the equivalent of about 7.5 million and 10.3 million barrels of oil, respectively.

The transportation energy also includes aviation, marine and rail fuel use. But cars and trucks account for about 70% of the total.

Regionally, transportation-related energy demand in Asia Pacific will surpass North America in about 2015, according to the analysis. It predicts that Asia Pacific already the world's largest consumer of energy in the heavy-duty vehicle sector will add about 500 million personal-use vehicles between 2010 and 2040.