EVs: At Least a Decade Away from Mass Appeal

The auto industry's senior technologists say the high cost of electric vehicles will prevent EVs from becoming more than a niche product until at least 2025, today's The Wall Street Journal reports.

The newspaper notes that the cost hurdle for electric vehicles came up repeatedly this week at SAE International's annual World Congress in Detroit. The Journal says the senior executives in charge of developing powertrain options agree that EVs and hybrids aren't likely to approach 10% of the U.S. market for many years.

Sam Winegarden, who heads powertrain engineering at General Motors, points out that gasoline and diesel fuels deliver considerably more energy per unit than even the most advanced lithium-ion battery and at a fraction of the cost.

Chris Cowland, Chrysler's director of advanced powertrains, figures the engine and transmission in a typical $30,000 car cost about $3,000. The battery alone in an EV costs at least four times as much. Not surprisingly, consumers balk at the difference.

Government incentives can help lower the cost hurdle, thereby boosting EV demand. But Robert Bienenfeld, Honda's U.S. senior manager for environment and energy strategy, points out that EV prices themselves must become more competitive to create a sustainable market.

Powertrain executives at the SAE meeting agree that a major shift to EVs would significantly reduce greenhouse gases emissions by comparison to today's piston-powered cars and trucks. But they say advances in conventional power sources are a more economical and practical way, at least for now, to cut emissions and use less fuel.