Auto Employment Plateaus in U.S.

U.S. employment in vehicle manufacturing has stalled about 15% below its pre-financial-crisis level in 2007, says Brookings Institution analyst Mark Muro.

Muro’s analysis cites government data that show the auto industry contributed about 40% of U.S. gains in manufacturing jobs over the past two years—and 80% in the past 18 months. But he warns it isn’t clear whether other industries will pick up the slack as the automotive sector cools. To date, the outlook appears dim.

The Financial Times points to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data that indicates auto-related jobs grew about 50% in the seven years following the Great Recession in 2008. But employment in that sector plateaued a year ago.

A downturn is most likely to hit metropolitan areas in the Midwest and South, Muro and his colleagues say.

Muro says even the most optimistic scenario points to modest gains in manufacturing that would fall dramatically short of the “millions” of manufacturing jobs President Donald Trump hopes to repatriate, Muro points out. He notes that carmakers also are increasing their use of automation, which will further erode employment levels.