Durable Goods Production Increases Just 0.6% in November

The durable goods industrial production index was 108.1 in November 2015. In November, the one-month rate of change was 0.6 percent, which was the second time in three months that production increased less than 1.0 percent. Also, it was the second slowest rate of growth since July 2013. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 2.5 percent, which was the ninth straight month that the growth rate decelerated. This was the slowest rate of annual growth since May 2014.

The best leading indicators for durable goods production are housing permits, durable goods new orders, and consumer durable goods spending. Housing permits have grown at a relatively constant rate for four months. The one-month rate of change in durable goods new orders has contracted for nine months and the annual rate of change contracted in October for the fourth month in a row. Durable goods spending is still growing at a relatively strong rate and above its historical average. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: food/beverage; petrochemical processors; printing

Decelerating Growth: aerospace; appliances; automotive; construction materials; custom processors; durable goods; electronics/computers/telecommunications; forming/fabricating (non-auto); furniture manufacturing; hardware; HVAC; industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; machinery/equipment; medical; off-road/construction machinery; plastic/rubber products; power generation; ship building; textiles/clothing/leather goods; wood/paper products

Accelerating Contraction: metalcutting job shops; military; oil/gas-field/mining machinery; primary metals; pumps/valves/plumbing products

Decelerating Contraction: none