Will Automated Shuttles Handle 95% of U.S. Travel by 2030?

Fully automated electric shuttles will account for 60% of vehicles on the road in the U.S. by 2030—and they will provide 95% of the passenger miles traveled, predicts RethinkX, a year-old U.S. think tank that fosters discussion about technology-driven disruption.

In Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, the group provocatively predicts a sudden and massive a shift from traditional private ownership to ride- and car-share “transport-as-a-service” (TaaS) providers like Lyft and Uber that will cause the biggest disruption in the history of transportation.

RethinkX estimates that on-demand transportation will slash the number of vehicles on the road in the U.S. from 247 million to 44 million by 2030. The analysis contends that the array of emerging transport options will deliver 6 trillion passenger miles by 2030 at 25% the cost of using personally owned vehicles.

The study envisions fleets of automated cars whose vehicles are constantly on the move and can be summoned within minutes. Using such shuttles for most trips will lower personal transport costs by as much 90%, pumping $1 trillion of disposable income into the American economy alone, according to the report.

The analysis predicts a widespread shift by consumers to TaaS that will result in a sharp decline in miles traveled in individually owned vehicles beginning in 2024. A big reason: Automated shuttles will carry passengers at least 40% of the time—10 times the utilization rate of private vehicles.

RethinkX says its research is intended largely to foster discussion and gain the attention of decision-makers. It says “sub-optimal” decision can hurt societies by locking them into expensive and obsolete technologies.

The group’s report predicts that a dramatic swing in TaaS will begin to have a dire impact on vehicle manufacturing, car dealers and the oil industry in as few as seven years. It also points out huge business opportunities for providers of on-demand transport options and in-vehicle services.

Not surprisingly, carmakers take a less alarming view. Gilles Normand, who heads Renault SA’s electric-car operations, tells Bloomberg News that global demand for personally owned vehicles will continue to grow for decades in spite of self-driving technology.

He agrees that automated cars will prompt a shift in consumer philosophy from owning vehicles to buying transport services. But Normand contends that shrinkage in private car ownership in such developed markets as Europe and the U.S. will be offset by years of growth in demand for such vehicles in emerging markets, where access to privately owned cars remains a strong aspirational goal.