Polk: U.S. Auto Sales to Grow Nearly 7% This Year

Registrations of new cars and light trucks in America will climb to 15.30 million units this year from an estimated 14.35 million vehicles in 2012, according to auto data provider Polk.

The Southfield, Mich.-based firm predicts auto sales will be boosted over the next three years by a healthier U.S. economy and a raft of new-model launches. Polk warns that its forecast hinges on Washington's ability to agree later this year on a program of spending cuts to shrink the federal deficit.

The company projects sales of 15.8 million light vehicles next year and 16.2 million in 2015, followed by a cyclical dip to 16 million units in 2016. But Polk doesn't expect annual sales to return to pre-recession levels of 17 million vehicles "for many years."

This year carmakers will introduce 43 new models in the U.S. a nearly 50% increase from 2012 and debut 60 redesigned vehicles, the firm calculates.

Polk predicts demand for compact and subcompact vehicles will continue to be bolstered by high gasoline prices, stricter fuel-economy regulations and the interest of young car buyers.

The forecaster expects midsize sedans to remain the largest segment of the American auto market. Price competition will spur continued growth in compact crossover vehicle sales.

Demand for fullsize pickup trucks, which has sagged in the past five years, will recover in 2013, Polk forecasts. It cites the reviving American housing market and the arrival of new models from Ford, General Motors and Toyota.

North American production will rise 2% to about 15.9 million vehicles in 2013 because of a stronger economy and increased factory capacity, according to Polk. It expects regional output of 16.3 million vehicles in 2014, 16.6 million units in 2015 and 16.7 million units in 2016.