China, India, Russia Will Lead Global Growth in Light Vehicle Sales

China, India and Russia will drive an expansion of the global market for passenger vehicles to 2.1% this year, 2% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019, LMC Automotive predicts.

The market research company says regional markets will drop 2% in North America this year but grow 11% in South America, 3% in western Europe, 6% in central/eastern Europe and 5% in Asia.

Jeff Schuster, LMC’s senior vice president for automotive, tells attendees at the company’s annual global light-vehicle industry outlook conference that worldwide demand for light vehicles will expand 1.8% to 94.7 million units this year. He says sales will rise 2% to 96.6 million in 2018 and 2.5% to 99.0 million in 2019.

China is expected to contribute 27% of overall growth during the period, followed by India (15%) and Russia (10%). Sales in the U.S. will shrink 11% between now and 2019.

Schuster says longer term annual growth rates will average 2.8% for the world’s economy and 2% for the car market. Production volume during that period will track average demand, as capacity utilization improves from about 67% currently to 75% by 2024. Asia is expected to contribute nearly 55% of the world’s global vehicle production capacity by 2024.

LMC anticipates 5.2% average annual growth in demand for SUVs through the same period. Sales gains will average 2.7% for pickups, 1.4% for vans, 0.9% for minivans and MPVs, and only 0.5% for conventional cars. By 2025, one-third of all models offered worldwide will be SUVs.