April Durable Goods Production Reaches All-Time High

According to the Federal Reserve, the durable goods industrial production index was 103.0 in April 2013. This represents a 3.2% increase over the production level of April 2012. This is the fourth straight month that the index has set an all-time high for that month. Absolute production levels are still very close to the all-time high. Despite the record production levels, the rate of growth in durable goods production continues to slow. The month-over-month rate of change, now 3.2%, has slowed each of the last five months. And, this is the slowest rate of growth since February 2010. Consequently, the annual rate of change has slowed each of the last six months, reaching its slowest rate of growth since September 2010.

One of the best leading indicators for durable goods production is capital goods new orders. The annual rate of change in new orders has contracted faster each of the last five months. This trend is likely to continue for at least the next several months. Therefore, we should expect durable goods production to see a slower rate of growth for much of 2013.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: appliances; construction materials; custom processors; food and beverage processing; hardware; medical; plastics and rubber; wood and paper products

Decelerating Growth: aerospace; automotive; durable goods; electronics, computers, and telecommunications; forming and fabricating (non-auto); furniture; HVAC; industrial motors, hydraulics, and mechanical components; machinery and equipment; metalcutting job shops; military; off-road and construction machinery; oil, gas field, and mining machinery; petrochemical processors; power generation; pumps, valves, and plumbing products; ship building;

Accelerating Contraction: primary metals; textiles, clothing, and leather goods

Decelerating Contraction: printing