Income Continues at Constant Rate of Growth

(Neutral) May real disposable income was $12,579 billion dollars (seasonally adjusted at an annual rate). This was an all-time high for real disposable income. In May, real disposable income grew 3.2 percent compared with one year ago, which was slightly faster than the historical average growth rate. The month-over-month rate of growth has decelerated the last two months. However, the annual rate of growth remained unchanged at 3.4 percent. Since July 2015, the annual growth has fluctuated in a very narrow band of 3.4 to 3.6 percent. While virtually everyone likes to mock Chinese data as being maniuplated, the raw disposable income data is virtually a striaght line since early 2014. There is no other period in history where this data set appears as such a straight line, which makes one think that current data is being manipulated. It truly appeas unnatural.

Real disposable income is one of the earliest leading indicators for the following end markets: aerospace; construction materials; custom processors; electronics/computers/telecommunications equipment; food/beverage processing; forming/fabricating (non-auto); hardware; HVAC; industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; machinery/equipment manufacturing; metalcutting job shops; oil/gas field/mining machinery; power generation; primary metals; and printing.