Housing Permits Contract in April

 (Negative) There were 98,400 housing permits filed in april 2016. Comapred with one year ago, housing permits decreased 6.1 percent. This was the first month of contraction since October 2015 and just the fourth month of contraction since April 2011. However, it was easily the fastest rate of contraction of those four months. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 10.5 percent, which was the slowest rate of growth since October. Just based on recent housing permit data, the annual rate of change will continue to decelerate in the upcoming months.

The real 10-year treasury rate has increased at a slower rate for several months. Typically, this indicates accelerating growth in housing permits. Changes in the interest rate lead changes in housing permits and construction spending by about 12 months on average.

We use housing permits as an early leading indicator for the following industries: appliances; custom processors; furniture; hardware; HVAC; off-road/construction machinery; petrochemical processors; plastics; plastic/rubber products; pumps/valves/plumbing products; textiles/clothing/leather goods; and wood/paper products.