Durable Goods Production Increases less than 2.0 Percent

The durable goods industrial production index was 104.4 in July 2015. In July, the one-month rate of change was 1.7 percent, which was the second month in a row that it was below 2.0 percent. That is the first time this has happened since December 2013-January 2014. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 3.7 percent, which was the fifth straight month that the growth rate decelerated.

The best leading indicators for durable goods production are housing permits, capital goods new orders, and consumer durable goods spending. Housing permits have grown at an accelerating rate recently. The one-month rate of change in capital goods new orders has contracted for eight months and the annual rate of change is growing at a much slower rate over the last three months. Durable goods spending is still growing at a relatively strong rate and above its historical average. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: aerospace; food/beverage; hardware; off-road/construction machinery; petrochemical processors; printing; textiles/clothing/leather goods; 

Decelerating Growth: appliances; automotive; construction materials; custom processors; durable goods; electronics/computers/telecommunications; forming/fabricating (non-auto); furniture manufacturing; HVAC; industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; machinery/equipment; medical; metalcutting job shops; oil/gas-field/mining machinery; plastic/rubber products; power generation; pumps/valves/plumbing products; ship building; wood/paper products

Accelerating Contraction: primary metals

Decelerating Contraction: military