Durable Goods Orders Contract for 9th Month

Real durable goods new orders in October 2015 were $240,083 million. Compared with one year ago, durable goods new orders were down 2.0 percent. October was the ninth month in a row that the month-over-month rate of change contracted. However, October had the third smallest contraction of those nine months. The annual rate of change, now -4.7 percent, contracted for the fourth month in a row at an accelerating rate. 

Motor vehicle and parts orders increased a 2.5 percent. That was the slowest rate of growth since February. The annual rate of change generally was unchanged at 6.8 percent. It appears that motor vehicle and parts new orders may have hit their peak rate of growth. However, aerospace orders are moving in the opposite direction. In October, aerospace orders were up 18.9 percent. This was the first month-over-month increase since June and the largest month-over-month increase since August 2014. Annually, aerospace orders are contracting at a very significant rate because of the huge spike in orders in July 2014. However, the rate of contraction has decelerated each of the last two months. This trend should continue in upcoming months.

We use real capital goods new orders to forecast activity in metalcutting job shops, metalworking, and durable goods.