Consumer Spending Weak but Durable Goods Spending Solid

(Negative) Real consumer spending in September 2016 was $11,557 billion real dollars (seasonally adjusted at an annual rate). This was all-time high in consumer spending. The month-over-month rate of growth in consumer spending was 2.4 percent. The current rate of growth has been below the historic average of 3.3 percent since July 2015. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 2.6 percent, which was the slowest rate of annual growth since September 2014. The growth rate has decelerated since July 2015. 

In September, durable goods spending grew 5.7 percent. That was the second time in three months that the rate of month-over-month growth was above average. The decline in the real 10-year treasury rate seems to be boosting durable goods spending. The annual rate of growth, now 5.0 percent, was the slowest since September 2010 but looked set to rebound in the upcoming months.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices.

Accelerating Growth: appliances, electornics, food/beverage, pleasure boats

Decelerating Growth: air transportation services, total consumer, durable goods, medical care, motor vehicles/parts, other non-durable goods, clothing/footwear