Cutting Tool Orders Fall 4.3% in April 2014

According to the Cutting Tool Market Report, a joint statistical program between AMT and USCTI, real cutting tool orders were $175.0 million in April 2014. This was 4.3% less than the order total for April 2013. This is the seventh month in a row that cutting tool orders have contracted compared to one year ago. The annual rate of change has been contracting at a fairly constant rate since December 2013.

For March, my cutting tool forecast was too high by 5.7%. For the year, my forecast is too high by 4.0%. Based on my forecast, the month-over-month rate of change should become positive and stay that way for the remainder of the year. Therefore, the growth in monthly cutting tool orders should translate into cutting tool orders increasing 0.9% in 2014 compared to 2013.

While there is not much history to work from, it is likely that real capital goods new orders and the backlog index from our monthly business index should be good leading indicators for cutting tool orders.