Production Rises 4.7% in November 2013

According to the Federal Reserve, the durable goods industrial production index was 105.1 in November 2013. This was an all-time record for the month of November. In addition, November's index was the fourth highest level ever behind September, October, and June of this year.

The month-over-month rate of growth was 4.7%. This is the fourth straight month that the monthly rate of change has been above 4.0%. During that four month period, the annual rate of change has been essentially flat at 4.0%. It looks like the annual rate of change has bottomed, which would be a positive sign for capital equipment spending in 2014.

One of the best leading indicators for durable goods production is capital goods new orders. Month-over-month capital goods new orders have grown faster five of the last seven months. And, the annual rate of change has been generally improving since March 2013. This indicates that durable goods production should begin growing faster very soon.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: appliances; construction materials; furniture manufacturing; machinery and equipment; metalcutting job shops; oil, gas field, and mining machinery; petrochemical processors; plastics and rubber; ship building; wood and paper products

Decelerating Growth: aerospace; automotive; custom processors; durable goods; electronics, computers, and telecommunications; food and beverage processing; forming and fabricating (non-auto); hardware; HVAC; medical; military; off-road and construction machinery; pumps, valves, and plumbing products

Accelerating Contraction: none

Decelerating Contraction: industrial motors, hydraulics, and mechanical components; power generation; primary metals; printing; textiles, clothing and leather goods