Durable Goods Production Up 3 out of 4 Months

(Neutral) The durable goods industrial production index was 103.4 in July 2016. After reaching its highest level ever last month, in July the index fell to its lowest level since July 2015. The one-month rate of change, 0.6 percent, grew for the fifth time in seven months. However, the one-month rate of change has been more than +/- 1.0 just two times since March 2015. The annual rate of change reamined at 0.1 percent.

The best leading indicators for durable goods production are housing permits, durable goods new orders, and consumer durable goods spending. Housing permits contracted for the fourth month in a row. The one-month rate of change in durable goods new orders has contracted four of the last seven months. Although, the annual rate of contraction has generally decelerated since October 2015. Durable goods spending grew at a below average rate the last eight months. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: construction materials; durable goods; medical; textiles/clothing/leather goods

Decelerating Growth: appliances; automotive; custom processors; electronics/computers/telecommunications; food/beverage; furniture manufacturing; HVAC; petrochemical processors; plastic/rubber products; printing

Accelerating Contraction: forming/fabricating (non-auto); industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; metalcutting job shops; off-road/construction machinery; oil/gas-field/mining machinery; power generation; pumps/valves/plumbing products

Decelerating Contraction: aerospace; hardware; machinery/equipment; military; primary metals; ship building; wood/paper products