Monetary Base Contracts 5.0 Percent in July

(Negative) In July 2016, the monetary base was $3.793 trillion. This was the lowest level for the monetary base since January 2014.  Compared with one year ago, the monetary base decreased 5.0 percent, which was the seventh time in eight months and 11th time in the last 14 months that it has contracted. As a result, the annual rate of change in the monetary base contracted at an accelerating rate for the fifth month in a row. The last time the annual rate of change contracted faster was June 1938. This was during the second leg down of the Great Depression. So, perhaps this is an indication that we are entering the second, and hopefully final, leg down in the Great Recession. It is likely that this will cause some surprising shifts in economic data.

You can see how the monetary base leads various machine tool sales and consumption data as well as primary plastics processing equipment at our monetary page.