Housing Permits Flat in November

(Negative) There were 90,200 housing permits filed in November 2016. This was the lowest level for permits since February. Comapred with one year ago, housing permits increased 0.1 percent, which was basically flat but technically the fourth month in a row of growth. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 1.7 percent, which was the slowest rate of growth since October 2011. 

The change in the real 10-year treasury rate was less negative this month, meaning that the real 10-year treasury rate is now a negative signal for housing permits. Changes in the interest rate lead changes in housing permits and construction spending by about 12 months on average. In fact, housing permits seem to have bottomed six months after interest rates started falling year over year.